When will newspapers die off in your country? In the United States, they’ll be gone in seven years. In the UK and Iceland, they’ll be extinct in nine years. In Canada, the printed newspaper will go the way of the dodo in eight years.
These predictions come from futurist Ross Dawson, who has published these dates and more in a “Newspaper Extinction Timeline” (opens in PDF). According to a press release, the timeline is backed by media industry think-tank Future Exploration Network and it specifies the number of years before “newspapers in their current form will become insignificant.”
“In the developed world newspapers are in the process of becoming extinct, driven by rapidly changing use of media and revenues out of line with cost structures,” said Dawson in the news release. “These pressures will be compounded by the rise of tablet devices and the coming availability of low-cost digital paper with exceptional qualities.”
The timeline predicts newspapers will be “insignificant” in 52 countries by 2040 in the developed world, but growth will remain constant everywhere else.
“In stark contrast, in many developing countries newspapers are growing rapidly,” said Dawson. ”This is resulting in a rapid divergence in media markets around the world, changing how marketers build global campaigns.”
The infographic is below, and a larger version including key factors can be found here (PDF).
- Cross-posted to Future of Media